Economic Research

Have Dealers' Strategies in the GCF Repo© Market Changed?
The bloggers examine the General Collateral Finance (GCF) Repo market, an interdealer market primarily using U.S. Treasury and agency securities as collateral, and consider whether recent regulatory changes have changed the behavior of securities broker-dealers.
By Nina Boyarchenko, Thomas Eisenbach, and Or Shachar
The Effect of the Strong Dollar on U.S. Growth
The U.S. dollar has appreciated around 12 percent since mid-2014, rising against almost all of our trading partners. The bloggers ask how the strength of the dollar affects U.S. GDP growth, focusing on the direct impact through the U.S. trade balance.
by Mary Amiti and Tyler Bodine-Smith
A Discussion of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Does More Capital Increase Inequality?
While Piketty is correct that the capital-output ratio will likely rise in the long run, and that capital and labor are highly substitutable, it is unlikely that the rise in the capital-output ratio should increase the share of output that ends up as capitalists’ net income.
By Maxim Pinkovskiy
A Discussion of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century: By How Much Is r Greater than g?
First in a two-part series. Pinkovskiy describes the arguments that Thomas Piketty makes—to conclude that wealth inequality will rise and that global capital taxation is needed to stop it—and presents a critical discussion of these arguments. His analysis starts with Piketty’s most famous formula, r > g.
By Maxim Pinkovskiy
Historical Echoes: The Year of the . . . Pigeon?
Farber recounts a Beijing tour guide’s almost unbelievable account of pigeons, exchange rates, and bank robbers during the Ming dynasty.
By Amy Farber
Will Silicon Alley Be the Next Silicon Valley?
While its relative importance in the local economy pales in comparison with the other tech hubs, New York City has been creating tech jobs at a brisk pace and apparently benefitting from the broad trend toward urbanization, suggesting that it is quickly catching up as a leading tech hub.
By Jason Bram and Matthew Ploenzke
Did the West Coast Port Dispute Contribute to the 2015:Q1 GDP Slowdown?
Although the labor dispute at the West Coast ports began midyear 2014, major disruptions to international trade did not surface until 2015:Q1, when export and import growth through the West Coast ports fell short of growth through other ports by 14 to 20 percent. The bloggers examine how the labor dispute at the West Coast ports might have affected GDP growth.
By Mary Amiti, Tyler Bodine-Smith, Michele Cavallo, and Logan Lewis
Supplemental Survey Report
For July, manufacturers and service sector firms in the New York–Northern New Jersey region respond to questions focused on sales, employment levels, and capital spending.
Business Leaders Survey
Business Leaders Survey
The July 2015 survey indicates that activity in the region's service sector expanded moderately.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Latest survey for July 2015 finds business conditions improved slightly.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
SCE Housing Survey
SCE Housing Survey—2015
Our 2015 survey finds U.S. households remain broadly optimistic about the housing market. Most renters report that they would rather own than rent if they had the necessary financial resources. As in last year’s survey, a majority believe that it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage, although responses suggest a slight easing in perceived credit access.
Greenboard with math squiggles for DSGE model artwork
In recent work, economists described the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic equilibrium model, assessed its forecasting accuracy, and shared source code used for model estimation.
Research Topics in Focus: College grads
Is College Worth It?
Students in recent years have been paying more to attend college and earning less upon graduation—trends that have raised questions about whether a college education remains a good investment. But research from economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz finds that the benefits of college still tend to outweigh the costs.
Recent Articles
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
The authors estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution—the elasticity of expected consumption growth with respect to variation in the real interest rate—using subjective expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa, Staff Reports 734, July 2015
Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs
The authors examine detailed student-level financial data and changes in federal student aid programs to identify the impact of increased student loan funding on tuition.
David Lucca, Taylor Nadauld, and Karen Shen, Staff Reports 733, July 2015
Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays
This paper exploits unique panel data derived from credit reports to provide the first comprehensive evidence at the individual level of how homeowners manage credit during periods of financial stress.
By Sewin Chan, Andrew Haughwout, Andrew Hayashi, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Reports 732, June 2015
Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
The first round of Quantitative Easing (QE1), announced in November 2008, increased both U.S. mortgage activity and real spending but its effects were smaller in parts of the country with the largest employment declines.
By Martin Beraja, Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst, and Joseph Vavra, Staff Reports 731, June 2015
Segregated Balance Accounts
This paper introduces the concept for a new monetary tool—segregated balance accounts (SBAs)—that could provide increased competition for deposits, reduce system-wide balance sheet costs, and improve the transmission of monetary policy by facilitating greater pass-through of interest on excess reserves. The authors explain how SBAs work, their advantages, and some potential risks.
By Rodney Garratt, Antoine Martin, James McAndrews, and Ed Nosal, Staff Reports 730, May 2015
Supervising Large, Complex Financial Companies: What Do Supervisors Do?
This paper describes the Federal Reserve’s supervisory approach to large, complex financial companies and outlines how prudential supervisory activities are structured, staffed, and implemented on a day-to-day basis at the New York Fed. The goal is to generate insight for those not involved in supervision into what supervisors do and how they do it.
By Thomas Eisenbach, Andrew Haughwout, Beverly Hirtle, Anna Kovner, David Lucca, and Matthew Plosser, Staff Reports 729, May 2015
Small Firms' Formalization: The Stick Treatment
The authors perform an experiment—a stick intervention—which is perhaps the first one in a developing country setting that deals with the most direct and dominant form of firm informality, that is, registration with the tax authority with a direct link to the country's potential revenue base and thus public goods provision.
By Giacomo De Giorgi, Matthew Ploenzke, and Aminur Rahman, Staff Reports 728, May 2015
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