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Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies: Publications

Scholarly research on topics in macroeconomic and monetary policy as well as analysis of current economic, fiscal, and monetary conditions.

Liberty Street Economics

The New York Fed Staff Forecast Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach May 23, 2013

Do Big Cities Help College Graduates Find Better Jobs? Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz May 20, 2013

My Two (Per)cents: How Are American Workers Dealing with the Payroll Tax Hike? Basit Zafar, Max Livingston, and Wilbert van der Klaauw May 15, 2013

The Effect of Superstorm Sandy on the Macroeconomy M. Henry Linder, Richard W. Peach, and Sarah K. Stein April 22, 2013

Is Job Polarization Holding Back the Labor Market? Stefania Albanesi, Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, and Ayşegül Şahin March 27, 2013

The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson February 25, 2013

Historical Echoes: Cash or Credit? Payments and Finance in Ancient Rome Marco Del Negro and Mary Tao February 22, 2013

Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement? Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench January 7, 2013

Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich November 19, 2012

Historical Echoes: How Do You Say “Wall Street” in Latin? Marco Del Negro and Mary Tao November 9, 2012

Going Mobile—Census Bureau Launches Economic Data App Robert Rich, Kara Masciangelo, and Mary Tao August 14, 2012

Housing Checkup—Has the Market Finally Bottomed Out? Joshua Abel, Richard Peach, and Joseph Tracy July 17, 2012

The Euro-zone Growth Outlook—Calm Before the Storm? Joshua Abel, Robert Rich, and Joseph Tracy May 21, 2012

The Great Moderation, Forecast Uncertainty, and the Great Recession Ging Cee Ng and Andrea Tambalotti May 14, 2012

The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2012 Jonathan McCarthy, Richard Peach, and Simon Potter May 11, 2012

Forecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip Marco Del Negro, Daniel Herbst, and Frank Schorfheide April 16, 2012

The European Growth Outlook and Its Risks Joshua Abel, Robert Rich, and Joseph Tracy April 11, 2012

Chairman Bernanke Returns to His Academic Roots, Part 2 Argia M. Sbordone March 30, 2012

A special series on the Labor Market

Prospects for the U.S. Labor Market Jonathan McCarthy and Simon Potter March 26, 2012

Okun’s Law and Long Expansions Jonathan McCarthy, Simon Potter, and Ging Cee Ng March 27, 2012

The Bathtub Model of Unemployment: The Importance of Labor Market Flow Dynamics Ayşegül Şahin and Christina Patterson March 28, 2012

Skills Mismatch, Construction Workers, and the Labor Market Richard Crump and Ayşegül Şahin March 29, 2012

Reconciling Contrasting Signals in the Labor Market: The Role of Participation Stefania Albanesi, Ayşegül Şahin, and Joshua Abel March 30, 2012

How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go? Jonathan McCarthy, Simon Potter, and Ayşegül Şahin April 2, 2012

Current Issues in Economics and Finance

The Financial Crisis at the Kitchen Table: Trends in Household Debt and Credit Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Volume 19, Number 2  2013

Staff Reports

Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum Marco Del Negro and Giorgio Primiceri Number 619  May 2013

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models Marco Del Negro, Marc P. Giannoni, and Frank Schorfheide Number 618  May 2013

Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment Jean Boivin, Marc P. Giannoni, and Dalibor Stevanović Number 615  May 2013

The Gender Unemployment Gap Stefania Albanesi and Ayşegül Şahin Number 613  April 2013

The Inflation-Output Trade-Off Revisited Gauti Eggertsson and Marc P. Giannoni Number 608  March 2013

Geographical Reallocation and Unemployment during the Great Recession: The Role of the Housing Bust Fatih Karahan and Serena Rhee Number 605  March 2013

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti Number 602  March 2013

The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Robert Rich, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy Number 588  December 2012

Rare Shocks, Great Recessions Vasco Cúrdia, Marco Del Negro, and Daniel Greenwald Number 585  December 2012

The Forward Guidance Puzzle Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson Number 574  October 2012

Mismatch Unemployment Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni L. Violante Number 566  August 2012

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting Marco Del Negro and Frank Schorfheide Number 554  March 2012

Deficits, Public Debt Dynamics, and Tax and Spending Multipliers Matthew Denes, Gauti B. Eggertsson, and Sophia Gilbukh Number 551  February 2012 Revised September 2012

Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Bruce Preston Number 547  February 2012

Optimal Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Stabilization versus Price-Level Stabilization Marc P. Giannoni Number 546  February 2012

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux Saroj Bhattarai, Gauti Eggertsson, and Raphael Schoenle Number 540  January 2012